Measuring the technological transformation of the global economy requires going beyond just the software lens. Data flows, digital services, and artificial intelligence are reshaping trade, but they now face physical constraints that few analyses incorporate: energy, electric transport infrastructure, and the divide between advanced economies and developing countries. The issue is no longer just about which technologies are emerging, but which can actually be deployed at scale.
Energy constraints of data centers and physical limits of AI
Digital growth relies on energy-hungry hardware infrastructure. According to the International Energy Agency, the electricity demand of data centers is expected to more than double by 2030, primarily driven by workloads related to artificial intelligence.
The problem is not the construction of the centers themselves. A data center can be built in a matter of months. It is the electrical networks, high-voltage transmission lines, and new production capacities that are lagging, often requiring several years for permits and construction.
This structural gap between the speed of digital and the slowness of physical infrastructure alters the geography of investments. Regions with reliable energy surpluses (Nordic countries, certain areas of North America) attract projects, while others see their networks saturated. The analysis of the global economy as seen by Claravox highlights this growing dependence between energy capacity and digital competitiveness.
Digital services and international trade: a very uneven growth
The growth of digital services in international trade is changing traditional trade balances. However, this dynamic is widening a gap. UNCTAD notes that the least developed countries are not keeping pace. Several factors explain this disconnect:
- The cost of connectivity remains prohibitive in many regions of Africa and South Asia, limiting access to digital exchange platforms
- Technical skills are lacking to develop and maintain exportable services (software development, data management, cybersecurity)
- Cross-border payment systems remain fragmented, adding friction to digital transactions
- Local computing capacities (servers, bandwidth) are insufficient to host internationally competitive services
The result is a digital trade that massively benefits already connected economies. Developed countries capture the majority of the added value generated by digital services exports.
Comparative table: gaps between advanced economies and least developed countries
| Criterion | Advanced economies | Least developed countries |
|---|---|---|
| Share of global digital exports | Widely majority | Marginal |
| Cost of connectivity | Low, dense network | High, uneven coverage |
| Data center infrastructure | Rapidly expanding | Almost nonexistent locally |
| AI and development skills | Skilled pool, ongoing training | Structural deficit |
| Access to cross-border payments | Integrated systems (SWIFT, platforms) | Fragmented, high costs |
This table illustrates a point rarely addressed in general analyses: technological transformation accelerates inequalities between economic blocs instead of mechanically reducing them.
Artificial intelligence and productivity: double-edged effects
AI can boost productivity and raise incomes. At the same time, it risks replacing jobs and widening inequalities within advanced economies themselves.
The nuance lies in the type of job concerned. Routine and codifiable tasks are the first to be affected. Functions that combine contextual judgment, human interaction, and creativity resist better, at least in the short term.
The tipping point lies in the ability of educational and training systems to support the transition. Countries that invest in reskilling their workforce absorb the shock better. Those that do not see an increased polarization between highly skilled jobs and precarious employment.
Speed of deployment and regulation
Another factor differentiating national trajectories is regulation. Countries that establish clear frameworks for AI (liability, algorithmic transparency, data protection) attract more investment than those where legal ambiguity persists. The absence of rules is not a sustainable competitive advantage, as it undermines the trust of businesses and users.
Geo-economic fracture and digital sovereignty
The technological transformation is not just an innovation issue. It is becoming a sovereignty challenge. Data centers, submarine cables, semiconductors, and rare earth reserves are drawing a geopolitical map where technological dependence is gradually replacing traditional energy dependence.
Global South economies face a double trap. Without local infrastructure, they depend on foreign suppliers to store and process their data. Without technical skills, they cannot develop alternatives. The risk is one of lasting marginalization in an increasingly dematerialized global trade.
- Strategic investments in semiconductors are concentrated in three areas: North America, Western Europe, and East Asia
- Submarine cables, which carry nearly all global internet traffic, are owned by a limited number of operators
- AI training programs remain concentrated in universities in high-income countries
The most telling data of this transformation is not a growth rate of the digital GDP. It is the widening gap between countries capable of producing and hosting technology and those that merely consume it. This gap will determine the economic power dynamics of the coming decades, far beyond just the technology sector.
